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Forum » Werewolf 9 - So this physicist walks into the h-bar...
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  • Werewolf 9 - So this physicist walks into the h-bar...

    Murska 5 years ago
    Disagree with the coin-flip part. Probabilities are workable, not just random chance.
    #
    MageKing17 5 years ago
    "Murska" said:
    Meaning Mageking would have to be 7 or 4, amirite? Have I missed something?
    I notice you didn't put yourself on that list.

    And what the hell, why not. I'm player #4.
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    Hmm...

    I'll reveal my number if necessary. I think Player 10, according to current info, is most likely to be either Anarion or E_net4. Can anyone confirm having attacked any of these two players so we can narrow it down?

    Meanwhile, I vote to lynch E_net4.
    #
    Endymion 5 years ago
    "Murska" said:
    Disagree with the coin-flip part. Probabilities are workable, not just random chance.
    Yes and then there are your own actions to consider. Lynching someone you've targeted might have all sorts of interesting consequences.
    #
    E_net4 5 years ago
    "Murska" said:
    Hmm...

    I'll reveal my number if necessary. I think Player 10, according to current info, is most likely to be either Anarion or E_net4. Can anyone confirm having attacked any of these two players so we can narrow it down?
    You sir, are not correct. I am not number 10. Your shot against me and Anarion is also incorrect because YOU are also capable of being number 10. And screw this, I don't want you loose. Voting to lynch Murska.
    #
    Anarion 5 years ago
    I don't see the benefit from revealing your player number.

    On an unrelated note,Lynch E_net4.
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    According to what you know, I could be 10. But according to what I know, namely my own number, I can't.

    Anyway, I've been targeted, and that can be proven by whoever did it.
    #
    E_net4 5 years ago
    You leave me no choice but to protect me, at least from this round. I'm number 1. And my wishes to strike Murska down were just to prevent him from manipulating us again.
    Therefore, I change my lynch vote to Anarion, has he's most probably the one we're looking for.
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    If someone has targeted E_net4 for a kill, say it. If someone is number 1, say it.

    Meanwhile, I change my vote to lynch Anarion.
    #
    Grim Reaper 5 years ago
    Just to make this a teensy bit more interesting, I'll just bring us into a tie situation by voting to lynch E_net4.
    #
    Endymion 5 years ago
    Hmm... I have no idea which number Anarion is...
    #
    Narvius 5 years ago
    Anarion is probably 9, because I really am 7. I just wanted to see whether someone protests, apparently not. :>

    I'll also lynch Anarion while I'm at it.
    #
    E_net4 5 years ago
    "Grim Reaper" said:
    Just to make this a teensy bit more interesting, I'll just bring us into a tie situation by voting to lynch E_net4.
    Not so fast, mister. You've been rather quiet, haven't you?
    #
    Grim Reaper 5 years ago
    "E_net4" said:
    "Grim Reaper" said:
    Just to make this a teensy bit more interesting, I'll just bring us into a tie situation by voting to lynch E_net4.
    Not so fast, mister. You've been rather quiet, haven't you?
    Indeed I have.

    And since the tie situation has come and gone, it's time to jump into the bandwagon!

    In other words, lynch Anarion.
    #
    Amarth 5 years ago
    Another day at the conference. The conference that marks a new age for humanity. At the moment, the knowledge, the terrible truth about the man/wolf duality is confined to the greatest minds on Earth and they are gathered here. But it won't remain like that. The conference will end. Papers will be written. Students will be schooled. The press will attempt to vulgarize it, dumb it down for the masses. But not yet. Not until the end of the conference.

    Right now, humanity is at a turning point. Will we accept our wolfish selves? Will we be able to live with it? Or will the world end itself in an incredible rapture, an apocalypse, the end of times indeed? It seems possible. In fact, you worked out the probabilities. It seems likely.

    But there is an alternative. Make sure the knowledge doesn't spread. Silence everyone. Yes. Let's look at this tiny scientist here. Anarion, the badge says. He doesn't understand the implications. He will be upholding his ideal about spreading knowledge, not seeing that it will doom humankind.

    You think about the irony of it all while washing the blood off your hands. To prevent the world of knowing about the wolves, you might have to become one yourself.

    Sorry for not writing in a voting system, but it seems easier this way.

    VOTES
    Anarion: E_net4, Grim, Murska, Narvius
    E_net4: Anarion

    Anarion died, he was a Villager.

    Night until Monday, 23h59 GMT. Remember, everyone has all actions etc.
    #
    Amarth 5 years ago
    I need to tell you I was wrong with my explanations somewhere above here (I think in the first post).

    I told you guys that using your seer action on the same person doesn't have any benefit because you'll always get the same result, right?

    Well, I tested my implementation a bit further and this is not true. You *can* get different results for the same person. Basically, it firsts picks the alignment based on the probabilities, then collapses all universes where this is inconsistent when you are seer. I will let you think about the implications of this.

    I'm not sure if that's the correct behavior or not, the original page is a bit unclear on this. But now you all know.
    #
    Amarth 5 years ago
    You wake up. Or you dream about waking up. Or you never really slept. What's the difference, really. It's still early, everything is quiet. Calmly, you get dressed, take something to eat with you from the breakfast table and you go to the main lecture hall to see the new numbers.

    No-one else is there, the numbers are still the same as yesterday. Probably the scientist running the numbers isn't awake yet? You stare at the blackboard for a while, your thoughts wandering over the events of the last few days. The results are so strange, but the proof is undeniable...

    Just as you want to leave to get your thoughts on paper, you notice something. The numbers have changed. You can vaguely see the old table underneath, hurriedly wiped off, and the new numbers written in a frantic handwriting you recognize. Trembling, you look at your hands. They are white, powdered with chalk.
    Player  Good     Evil    Dead   
    1 53.54% 46.46% 19.69%
    2 100.00% 0.00% 100.00%
    3 68.50% 31.50% 40.94%
    4 61.42% 38.58% 19.69%
    5 100.00% 0.00% 100.00%
    6 72.44% 27.56% 40.94%
    7 61.42% 38.58% 10.24%
    8 70.87% 29.13% 27.56%
    9 43.31% 56.69% 0.00%
    10 68.50% 31.50% 0.00%

    Day until Friday, 23h59.
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    Hmm.

    Based on yesterday, I would rank Grim as the most likely person to be Player 9. So, I vote to lynch Grim. If someone alive claims to have attacked Grim, this is false and we should switch targets.
    #
    MageKing17 5 years ago
    Could you be slightly more specific before you launch a bandwagon?
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    Well what do you want to know?
    #
    E_net4 5 years ago
    To be honest, I wouldn't find the act of lynching Grim so bizarre. However, I can't trust Murska either, so I'll vote for a tie between both. Voting to lynch Murska.
    #
    Kario 5 years ago
    lynch narvius he needs to have been voted by somebody.
    also i am the first player to tell which player i am/
    #
    Endymion 5 years ago
    "E_net4" said:
    To be honest, I wouldn't find the act of lynching Grim so bizarre. However, I can't trust Murska either, so I'll vote for a tie between both. Voting to lynch Murska.
    Hmm I think I'll go with lynch Murska
    #
    Grim Reaper 5 years ago
    Due to the uncertain nature of the game I feel that I've nothing (sufficiently) substantial to use as evidence against lynching me, so I'll just vote to lynch the guy who wants to lynch me.

    In other words, lynch Murska.
    #
    Endymion 5 years ago
    Hmm... what about Vacuus? Has anyone attacked him? He said he wasn't number 10 so if no one has attacked him he would have to be number 9. So I'll change my vote to lynch Vacuus.

    Also I kind of doubt that no one has attacked Murska. Which makes me believe he would be number 8.
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    My current sheet is this:


    1 53.54% 46.46% 19.69% - E_net?
    2 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% - Speedblade!
    3 68.50% 31.50% 40.94% - Kario
    4 61.42% 38.58% 19.69% - Mageking?
    5 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% - Anarion!
    6 72.44% 27.56% 40.94% - Endymion
    7 61.42% 38.58% 10.24% - Narvius?
    8 70.87% 29.13% 27.56% - Murska!
    9 43.31% 56.69% 0.00% - Grim?
    10 68.50% 31.50% 0.00% - Vacuus?

    ! is confirmed, ? is under suspicion.

    I didn't notice that Vacuus said he isn't 10. So yeah, if Grim claims Player 10 I'm up to lynching Vacuus for claiming to be more than 50% likely to be evil.

    But don't lynch me, the second-most-likely good person in the game, plx. That would be very stupid.
    #
    Grim Reaper 5 years ago
    "Murska" said:
    My current sheet is this:


    1 53.54% 46.46% 19.69% - E_net?
    2 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% - Speedblade!
    3 68.50% 31.50% 40.94% - Kario
    4 61.42% 38.58% 19.69% - Mageking?
    5 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% - Anarion!
    6 72.44% 27.56% 40.94% - Grim!
    7 61.42% 38.58% 10.24% - Narvius?
    8 70.87% 29.13% 27.56% - Murska!
    9 43.31% 56.69% 0.00% - Vacuus?
    10 68.50% 31.50% 0.00% - Endymion
    Fix'd

    (sources: Endymion's PM in IRC, Amarth's PM at the beginning of the game
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    This is why I wish people counterclaimed if someone fakeclaimed their number. It leads to misunderstandings.

    Okay, lynch Vacuus instead then.
    #
    Grim Reaper 5 years ago
    Lynch Vacuus it is.
    #
    Endymion 5 years ago
    "Murska" said:
    This is why I wish people counterclaimed if someone fakeclaimed their number. It leads to misunderstandings.
    I suppose they are afraid of revealing themselves but still I was surprised that no one even pm'd me about it or anything.
    #
    Vacuus 5 years ago
    "Grim Reaper" said:
    "Murska" said:
    My current sheet is this:


    1 53.54% 46.46% 19.69% - E_net?
    2 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% - Speedblade!
    3 68.50% 31.50% 40.94% - Kario
    4 61.42% 38.58% 19.69% - Mageking?
    5 100.00% 0.00% 100.00% - Anarion!
    6 72.44% 27.56% 40.94% - Grim!
    7 61.42% 38.58% 10.24% - Narvius?
    8 70.87% 29.13% 27.56% - Murska!
    9 43.31% 56.69% 0.00% - Vacuus?
    10 68.50% 31.50% 0.00% - Endymion
    Fix'd

    (sources: Endymion's PM in IRC, Amarth's PM at the beginning of the game

    Not number nine, I am actually number 10 but didn't wish to say so as it'd result in me getting lynched. The fact that there's now a ~70% chance I'm good after one round should give you an indication of how fucking quick the percentages can change in this game. That probably sounds dodgy to you, but recall that no-one else has come forwards as player 10 (and why wouldn't they, at the very least it'd clear their name). Inevitably someone will come forwards now and claim to be the "real" player 10 just to be a pain; most likely situation is that they're actually player nine. Providing the rest of your table is correct (and I wont say that it is), that player would be Endymion or Grim.

    In any case, I scanned E_Net4 last night and was told he was evil. Because of my chance of being good at this stage, and hence the seer, I'll go out and say lynch E_Net4.

    You can't actually play this like normal WW anyway, everything is so damned random, particularly at this stage, that anything at all can change at any moment; trying to strategise will remain meaningless until later on when we have a 'concrete' good/evil player.
    #
    E_net4 5 years ago
    "Vacuus" said:
    In any case, I scanned E_Net4 last night and was told he was evil. Because of my chance of being good at this stage, and hence the seer, I'll go out and say lynch E_Net4.

    You can't actually play this like normal WW anyway, everything is so damned random, particularly at this stage, that anything at all can change at any moment; trying to strategise will remain meaningless until later on when we have a 'concrete' good/evil player.
    This one paragraph and the next one simply counter each other, don't you think? Not to mention that we are not sure how "good" you are under these circumstances.
    Oh well, lynch Vacuus. You totally asked for it.
    #
    Vacuus 5 years ago
    Just because it's nearly impossibly to play this particular game strategically doesn't mean we should sit around and do nothing or be stupid about it. I picked my vote based on what I know; you don't have to like it, but it is what it is.

    Besides, my point was that using percentages to pick lynch votes this early on (esp. without confirmation on who's who) isn't particularly intelligent. Once we've got a player that's >75% evil then yeah, we should think about it but at ~56% I can almost guarantee that the numbers will be completely different next round for #9, as it was for me.
    #
    Amarth 5 years ago
    The wolf roles are 'predetermined' in each universe. So if a wolf player dies, he can be alpha, beta, ... wolf. If he's alpha wolf (or beta if the alpha died already) then his kills will become reality and he will take people with him. If he's beta, then this clears his kills from being alpha wolf, because wolves can't attack each other.

    I think.

    EDIT: this is not in direct reply to anything above, but because someone asked in PM.
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    And lynching based on percentages is as good as anything we got right now. The actual role of the player is chosen based on the probabilities in the percentages. So player nine has over 50% chance of turning out to be evil if lynched, and any evil player lynched is a large advantage for the good guys.
    #
    Forum » Werewolf 9 - So this physicist walks into the h-bar...
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