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Forum » Werewolf 9 - So this physicist walks into the h-bar...
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  • Werewolf 9 - So this physicist walks into the h-bar...

    Amarth 5 years ago
    Brussels, 1927

    AE: I can not accept your theory, my dear NB. Surely God does not play Mafia with our universe?
    NB: I do not know, AE. But may I humbly suggest you do not tell God what to do?
    AE: But this is preposterous.
    ES: NB does have a point, you know. All evidence points towards our conclusion.
    MP: But think of the implications. We cannot walk away from this place and look at the world the same way.
    WH: Yet this is what I believe is true. We must act upon it.
    AE: But how can you prove it? How can you prove that this is what I am?
    NB: Maybe I can not prove it, my dear Albert. But can you prove you are NOT a werewolf?

    Welcome to Werewolf 9! This time we will play a slightly different version of Werewolf, named Quantum Werewolf (QW).

    In short, QW plays like a few thousand games of werewolf at the same time. You are all in a superposition of possible universes, each one representing one werewolf game. Every action you take will be played out in each of those universes, and by doing this some universes will collapse due to internal contradictions. For example, if player 1 determines by Seer vision that player 2 is a wolf, then any universe in which player 1 is seer and player 2 is not a wolf will collapse.

    A longer explanation of QW, and the rules we will follow, can be found here. I will not copy-paste everything on that page to here, that would be silly. I urge everyone to read this webpage, think about it, then read it again the next day. When you have done that and you still have questions, feel free to ask me, either in this thread, by PM or on IRC.

    So, what is important for you guys?
    Since you are in a superposition of all roles, every night you will be able to take all night actions of all roles you still have. In short, it's highly probable you will have both a Seer and a Wolf action every night. It is not mandatory to use these. For the exact effects of these night actions, see the webpage up there.
    At dawn, I will post a table with the probabilities of each player being good or evil. There will be no names, only player numbers. You will know your own player number but not the number of anyone else (or rather, I won't give it to you).
    As usual, during the day you can lynch one player. There will be a mayor for tie breaking. When a player dies, his role is fixed as a random choice from his possible roles. This might cause other things to happen.
    No suicide.

    What roles?
    One Seer, a few wolves, villagers. Because it probably gets too complicated otherwise. If this plays out fine I might consider adding more roles in a possible future game.

    Players?
    Anarion
    E_net4
    Endymion
    Grim
    Kario
    MageKing17
    Murska
    Narvius
    Speedblade
    Vacuus

    What is not as important for you guys?
    I will moderate the game using software to keep track of the whole thing. The software I will use can be found here. I made it myself, it's open source (GPL v3), Python 2.6, blabla. Feel free to study.
    To break the symmetry a bit, I will randomly throw away half the initial number of universes. It should not change the percentages a lot at the start but I think it will become more important towards the end.
    I have no idea how this will play out. Please be gentle with me if this somehow escapes and brutally murders your best friend or something. And if it isn't fun, at least it didn't brutally murder your best friend.

    TL;DR?
    Read this. Send all actions at night. Do villager thingies during day. You get a PM with your player number, it's private.

    Parting thoughts?
    "Richard Feynman" said:
    I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics.

    EDIT:
    It is now night! *Everyone* can send a Seer and a Wolf attack target to me!
    Daybreak around midnight GMT+1 between Sunday and Monday.

    Also EDIT:
    It's not allowed to attack or scan yourself during the night, kay? Be a good player now.
    #
    Amarth 5 years ago
    You awake with a sudden jolt. Ouch. Headache. Legs feeling like lead. What happened yesterday? You vaguely remember dreaming about the last few days. Building a dream from your memory is the easiest way of losing your grasp of what's real and what is a dream. Have to be careful here.

    No one else is around. You have breakfast, exit the hotel and you go to the main lecture hall of the institute. On the blackboard, someone chalked a table.

    Player  Good    Evil    Dead  
    1 72.93% 27.07% 10.12%
    2 64.42% 35.58% 0.00%
    3 70.63% 29.37% 27.91%
    4 71.09% 28.91% 10.20%
    5 71.32% 28.68% 0.00%
    6 75.38% 24.62% 12.73%
    7 68.48% 31.52% 0.00%
    8 75.84% 24.16% 10.28%
    9 68.40% 31.60% 7.98%
    10 61.50% 38.50% 0.00%

    So someone did the maths. Some genius or lunatic actually took the ridiculous idea (wasn't that just a dream?) and they calculated the numbers.

    Well, you're a scientist, dammit. There has to be a way to use this information in your advantage!

    Sorry for being early, but I had all the night actions in, some free time, and I thought what the hell, why would anybody care if it's too soon.

    Some explanation about the numbers and the night actions.

    Percentages are based on the non-collapsed universes. Remember, universes collapse when they become internally inconsistent. 'Good' means the universes where the player is seer or villager. 'Evil' are the ones where they are wolf. 'Dead' is the percentage of universes in which they are dead.

    Wolves follow a hierarchy. There's an alpha wolf, a beta wolf, etc. In each universe, only the highest ranked wolf still alive kills. So this means that if player one attacks player two, and player one has (say) 5% probability of being the alpha wolf (so in 5 out of 100 worlds, he is the alpha wolf), then player two is dead in those worlds. So it doesn't make sense to attack someone more than once. Wolves also can't attack other wolves, so the universes where player two is a lower-ranked wolf have now collapsed.

    Seer visions are determined up to the good/evil level, as above. Seer visions are only true when you are the actual seer, otherwise the result is random (with the current good/evil probabilities of the player). This might be hard to wrap your head around (took me a few days) but it's actually easy: all inconsistent universes (where player one is the seer but his target has alignment opposed to a vision he got) have collapsed, and once the seer is outed, all inconsistent universes (where he is not the seer) also collapse, so only the ones consistent with the seer's visions are left over. Note that, again, it doesn't make sense to target the same player twice, you'll get the same result (but another player might get a different result!)

    When a player dies, their role gets fixed. This happens by a random pick, with the current role probabilities (ie a random universe is picked with uniform probability). This might have consequences on other players, especially if he is the seer or if he is a wolf. If, due to some circumstances (collapsing universes), you can only still have one role, you will be notified.

    The line between rule questions and strategy questions might be thin, so I'll be completely arbitrary on what questions I answer, mainly so I can enjoy the confusion. Sounds fair? But feel free to ask any questions you still have though.

    It is now day. As in usual werewolf, you can vote for mayor (this works across all universes) and you can vote for lynch.

    Dusk at Friday the 12th, 23h59.
    #
    Narvius 5 years ago
    Can we have the number of remaining universes?

    ...I guess not :/
    #
    Amarth 5 years ago
    "Narvius" said:
    Can we have the number of remaining universes?

    ...I guess not :/
    *shrug*

    1304. Though I won't keep telling you in the future.

    You see why I don't run this by hand?
    #
    MageKing17 5 years ago
    I nominate myself for mayor, because there's not really an advantage to nominating somebody else in this game.
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    I nominate myself as well, and I even have a good basis on it that I won't name for obvious reasons.

    Hmm. This lynch will be essentially random, for now. Anyone with an 'evil' scry vision, I suppose?
    #
    E_net4 5 years ago
    Since this is meant to be random, I will make it even more by nominating myself for Mayor.
    #
    speedblade 5 years ago
    Lynch MageKing17

    Nominate SpeedBlade For Mayor

    "He desires power so much as to speak for it first, he must be a nefarious professor. However, fellow great minds, you are all cognizant of the fact that the greater the probability of being good, greater is the probability of being the seer. I am the second professor, with the second highest chance of being the seer, so it is wise to nominate me for mayor."
    #
    E_net4 5 years ago
    "speedblade" said:
    "He desires power so much as to speak for it first, he must be a nefarious professor. However, fellow great minds, you are all cognizant of the fact that the greater the probability of being good, greater is the probability of being the seer. I am the second professor, with the second highest chance of being the seer, so it is wise to nominate me for mayor."
    Italics are actually used for Offtopic text.

    I wouldn't really agree with that, so I'm letting you both argue first.
    #
    Kario 5 years ago
    lynch magkenig17
    i nominate endymion for mayors
    mageking solely on the fact that he is evil
    and endymion cuz he's cool
    #
    speedblade 5 years ago
    "E_net4" said:
    "speedblade" said:
    "He desires power so much as to speak for it first, he must be a nefarious professor. However, fellow great minds, you are all cognizant of the fact that the greater the probability of being good, greater is the probability of being the seer. I am the second professor, with the second highest chance of being the seer, so it is wise to nominate me for mayor."
    Italics are actually used for Offtopic text.
    "Amarth" said:
    Welcome to Werewolf 9!
    Dammit! The caek was a lie!?
    #
    Amarth 5 years ago
    "speedblade" said:
    "E_net4" said:
    "speedblade" said:
    "He desires power so much as to speak for it first, he must be a nefarious professor. However, fellow great minds, you are all cognizant of the fact that the greater the probability of being good, greater is the probability of being the seer. I am the second professor, with the second highest chance of being the seer, so it is wise to nominate me for mayor."
    Italics are actually used for Offtopic text.
    "Amarth" said:
    Welcome to Werewolf 9!
    Dammit! The caek was a lie!?
    *snip img snip size*
    More precise, italics is for out-of-character. The 'players' wouldn't know this was a game of werewolf. If you say you are a professor, that's kinda in-character.

    You are thinking about the situation. And then you pour yourself another glass of whiskey, while thinking by yourself 'this is too much to handle for my little brain.'

    EDIT: also, Kario, Endymion hasn't even said he is candidate for mayor yet. Argh. This is too much for my little brain to handle. No whiskey involved. IIRC.
    #
    speedblade 5 years ago
    "Amarth" said:
    Italics is for out-of-character.

    Where's the artistic, indulgent feel in that?
    #
    Endymion 5 years ago
    "Murska" said:

    Hmm. This lynch will be essentially random, for now. Anyone with an 'evil' scry vision, I suppose?
    I got only good feelings.

    Hmm... I think I'll vote Murska for mayor.

    I wonder who number 3 is? He seems to have been a popular target.
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    "speedblade" said:
    Lynch MageKing17

    Nominate SpeedBlade For Mayor

    "He desires power so much as to speak for it first, he must be a nefarious professor. However, fellow great minds, you are all cognizant of the fact that the greater the probability of being good, greater is the probability of being the seer. I am the second professor, with the second highest chance of being the seer, so it is wise to nominate me for mayor."

    Second, eh?
    Good Evil Dead
    72.93% 27.07% 10.12%
    64.42% 35.58% 0.00%
    70.63% 29.37% 27.91%
    71.09% 28.91% 10.20%
    71.32% 28.68% 0.00%
    75.38% 24.62% 12.73%
    68.48% 31.52% 0.00%
    75.84% 24.16% 10.28%
    68.40% 31.60% 7.98%
    61.50% 38.50% 0.00%

    Player no. 2 happens to have the highest chance of being evil.
    #
    Anarion 5 years ago
    I vote for Mageking17 as mayor, and vote to lynch Endymion.
    #
    Grim Reaper 5 years ago
    "Murska" said:
    Player no. 2 happens to have the highest chance of being evil.
    Actually, that's player no. 10 you're thinking of.

    Grim for mayor
    Lynch Kario
    And no, there's no real reason for either one of those choises.
    #
    Narvius 5 years ago
    So basically, the only decisive information anyone has is their respective player number and any other player numbers mapped by any means.

    Grrrreat.

    Also, lynch Narvius and mayor-vote Narvius.
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    Right, sorry, second highest. Damn school computers lagging out and making me unable to see the list to doublecheck.

    EDIT: Actually... being picked as Mayor probably means you'll be targeted for a few nightkills due to people assuming that if they're the alpha wolf, there's a rather small chance of the mayor being one of the other wolves. :/

    Then again, that'd shut out their chance of being Alpha in the circumstances the Mayor actually was a wolf.
    #
    Amarth 5 years ago
    "Narvius" said:
    Also, lynch Narvius and mayor-vote Narvius.
    Suicide is not allowed.
    #
    Endymion 5 years ago
    Lynch Anarion
    #
    E_net4 5 years ago
    "Amarth" said:
    "Narvius" said:
    Also, lynch Narvius and mayor-vote Narvius.
    Suicide is not allowed.
    It's not suiciding, technically.
    I vote to lynch speedblade as he was stupid enough to misunderstand the board.
    #
    MageKing17 5 years ago
    I vote to lynch speedblade, for trying to lynch me based on extremely dodgy logic.
    #
    Narvius 5 years ago
    I argue that suiciding is posting a variation of "I kill myself" followed by that person dying, ie. self-lynching is not suicide
    #
    Vacuus 5 years ago
    I argue that if you're pansy enough to not want to finish the game then you shouldn't have signed up in the first place, whatever you want to call it

    Anyway, lynch speedblade because it really doesn't matter at this point.
    #
    Narvius 5 years ago
    You think I really want to die so soon? The vote just doesn't really make a difference.

    ALSO. @Amarth, explainage. When a person is lynched... is he (or she, except not in this case) dead for good? Or is it seperate for each universe, where the person with most lynch votes is killed, but votes from people who are dead in that universe are ignored? How are ties resolved? No one dies, random, both?
    #
    Amarth 5 years ago
    "Narvius" said:
    ALSO. @Amarth, explainage. When a person is lynched... is he (or she, except not in this case) dead for good? Or is it seperate for each universe, where the person with most lynch votes is killed, but votes from people who are dead in that universe are ignored? How are ties resolved? No one dies, random, both?
    I thought this would have been clear, oops.

    Lynch is across all universes, because this person's death is a common observation. So the player that is lynched is out of the game, his role gets fixed (as described earlier) and this might have further effects such as seer visions or wolf attacks becoming fixed.

    Ties are resolved by mayor, obviously. If the mayor isn't involved in the tie, he decides the final outcome in a separate vote between the tied players.
    #
    Murska 5 years ago
    I vote to lynch Speedblade for being one of the most probably evil people.
    #
    speedblade 5 years ago
    Woah, guys... just cause I act evil doesn't mean my character is evil!
    #
    E_net4 5 years ago
    "speedblade" said:
    Woah, guys... just cause I act evil doesn't mean my character is evil!
    You weren't just evil, you were not smart. And we want intelligent people solving this.
    #
    Narvius 5 years ago
    I am away for three days, that is, until some point on saturday. Don't murder my best friend or something meanwhile, kthx?
    #
    E_net4 5 years ago
    "Narvius" said:
    I am away for three days, that is, until some point on saturday. Don't murder my best friend or something meanwhile, kthx?
    Can we really promise that?
    Owat, double emoticons
    #
    Kario 5 years ago
    "E_net4" said:
    You weren't just evil, you were not smart. And we want intelligent people solving this.
    Like ME!
    also can we change votes?
    #
    Amarth 5 years ago
    "Kario" said:
    also can we change votes?
    Sure.
    #
    Kario 5 years ago
    Because i can't vote endymion for mayor i vote MageKing17 for mayor
    and um... SPEEDBLADE FOR LYNCH
    MAGEKING BECAUSE HE'S TRUSTWORTHY AND LYNCH SPEEDBLADE BECUZ I LOOKED AT ALL OF THE EVIDENCE AND HAVE CUNCLUDED HIM TO BE THE BAD GUY.
    DON;T GET MAD AT ME SPEEDBLADE
    #
    Forum » Werewolf 9 - So this physicist walks into the h-bar...
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